Professor Francesco Paolucci

Objective: This study aims to examine the interplay between high policy stringency, vaccination rates and epidemiological outcomes to develop insights on COVID-19 policy transition in Singapore Methods: The CPTI (Categorising Policy & Technology Interventions) framework was used to classify reported interventions from January 2021 to October 2022. To analyse the impact of vaccine measures, an additional category was created. The highest monthly proportion of de-escalated measures was used as a basis to define the periods that mark the policy transition in Singapore i.e. Phase 2 and 3. Proportions of significantly escalated measures were calculated and analysed against full and booster vaccination rates, alongside epidemiological indicators ¿ monthly total number of infections and deaths, and monthly average active hospitalisation and ICU cases. Results: Implementation of highly stringent policies were observed to have reduced in intensity as vaccination rates picked up from Phase 2 to 3. Containment measures were the most frequently and consistently adopted beside vaccine policies. Epidemiological indicators appeared to be generally lower in Phase 3 than Phase 2. Specifically, despite reduced intensity of stringent polices, hospitalisation and ICU cases were observed to remain relatively low when vaccination rates were correspondingly higher in Phase 3 compared to Phase 2. Conclusion: The descriptive analysis of COVID-19 policy shift in Singapore based on selected indicators preliminarily suggested its successful transition from the pandemic to endemic phase in its response strategies. A policy transition plan should consider the significance of vaccination rates in an exit strategy that protects the population against worse health outcomes.

Risk equalization schemes, which transfer money to/from insurers that have above/below average risks, are a fundamental tool in regulated health insurance markets in many countries. Risk sharing (the transfer of some responsibility for costs from a plan to the regulator or the overall insurance market), are an additional method of insulating insurers who attract higher-than-average risks. This paper proposes, implements and quantifies incorporating risk sharing within a risk equalization scheme that can be applied in a data-poor context. Using Chile's private health insurance market as case study, we show that modest amount of risk sharing greatly improves fit even in simple demographic-based risk equalization. Expanding the model's formula to include morbidity-based adjustors and risk sharing redirects compensations at insurer level and reduces opportunity to engage in profitable risk selection at the group level. Our emphasis on feasibility may make alternatives proposed attractive to countries facing data-availability constraints.

Objectives: Whilst mass vaccination is suggested as an important means to contain COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination policies across many countries have systematically excluded some groups of population, especially migrants. This study aims to document the impact of diversified vaccination strategies as a preventative and control measure for the health and safety of the wider population within a country. Methods: We selected five countries that have experienced the changes in migrant inflows to the most extreme among OECD countries in 2020: The United States, Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea. We conducted an extensive qualitative documentary analysis focused on policies and interventions implemented in these countries since January 2020 till the end of September 2021. We also analyzed publicly available epidemiological data (released by the governments and other international organizations). Results: We find that achieving migrants¿ health and vaccination equity is not without challenges, and a failure to address those multiplicity of concerns may result in a vicious cycle for the vulnerable population at the fringes of our economy. Migrants continue to face extenuating circumstances with higher risks to their health and safety, when they are excluded or disadvantaged in vaccination policies. The more inclusive and proactive the governments are in consideration of diversity of migrant populations, the better they can manage the pandemic, which leads to overall societal benefit of ensuring public health. Conclusions: Equity-based policies can mitigate disparities in access to vaccination and healthcare, thereby reducing the spread of COVID-19 in the community.

Objectives: : This paper presents an overview of the procurement and deployment of COVID-19 vaccinations in Germany, Austria and Switzerland (DACH) from the success of the first vaccine trials until the end of August 2021. Data regarding vaccination procurement and deployment is presented, followed by an analysis of the challenges these countries face in improving their vaccination rates. Methods: : A review and analysis of available data from the DACH countries was conducted. Data was collected from official government sources whenever possible and supplemented by information from international databases and local reports. The data was analyzed to identify common patterns as well as divergences across the DACH region, especially as they relate to vaccine hesitancy and health policy. Results: : Following initial global supply problems, the DACH countries were largely successful at administering vaccinations to their populations. However, by the end of August 2021 their vaccination progress had plateaued. This was primarily due to vaccine hesitancy in the region, which is correlated with a multitude of complex factors. These factors need to be better understood before this issue can be effectively addressed. Unlike other countries, the DACH countries have not (yet) used financial incentives or mandates to increase vaccination rates. Conclusions: : The DACH countries displayed effective governance in their deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, but vaccine hesitancy is slowing progress. Due to various social and political factors, Germany, Austria and Switzerland have not been able to employ effective policy levers to overcome this barrier and a more nuanced strategy will have to be developed. Public Interest Summary: : Germany, Austria and Switzerland (DACH) were largely successful at procuring COVID-19 vaccine doses and administering them to their populations. After the first doses were acquired, their vaccination rates continued to steadily rise, but progress began to slow down substantially by August 2021 due in part to vaccine hesitancy. Unlike in other countries, the DACH governments have not been able to implement vaccine mandates to try and overcome this issue due to their specific political and social circumstances. A deeper understanding of the factors driving vaccine hesitancy in the region will be required before effective solutions can be found.

Objective:: Since the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments globally have introduced policy measures to contain the spread of the virus. Popular COVID-19 containment measures include lockdowns of various forms (aggregated into government response stringency index [GRSI]) and handwashing (HWF). The effectiveness of these policy measures remains unclear in the academic literature. This study, therefore, examines the effect of government policy stringency and handwashing on total daily reported COVID-19 cases. Method:: We use a comprehensive dataset of 176 countries to investigate the effect of government policy stringency and handwashing on daily reported COVID-19 cases. In this study, we apply the Lewbel (2012) two-stage least squares technique to control endogeneity. Results:: Our results indicated that GRSI significantly contributes to the increase in the total and new confirmed cases of COVI-19. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the 1st, 4th, and 5th quintiles of GRIS significantly reduce total confirmed cases of COVID-19. Also, the result indicated that while the 1st quintile of GRIS contributes significantly to reducing the new confirmed cases of COVID-19, the 3rd, 4th, and 5th quintiles of GRSI contribute significantly to increasing the new confirmed cases of COVID-19. The results indicated that HWF reduces total and new confirmed cases of COVID-19; however, such effect is not robust to income and regional effects. Nonlinear analysis revealed that while GRSI has an inverted U-shaped relationship with total and new confirmed cases of COVID-19, HWF has a U-shaped relationship. Conclusion:: We suggest that policymakers should focus on raising awareness and full engagement of all members of society in implementing public health policies rather than using stringent lockdown measures.

Objective: Lack of medical and scientific knowledge on rare diseases (RD) often translates into limited research on them and a subsequent lack of understanding of their economic impact. This meta-analysis aims to fill this gap by evaluating the economic impact of RDs and exploring potential factors associated with the societal burden of RD. Methods: Studies published between January 2010 and February 2017 were identified by searches in the PubMed platform. Thirty eligible studies were identified for inclusion, and nineteen studies were included in the meta-analysis and outcomes were explored. The cost categories include direct healthcare costs, direct non-healthcare formal costs, and direct non-healthcare informal costs. The patients¿ health-related quality of life (QoL) dimensions examined include EQ-5D scores, VAS scores and Barthel index, and the carers¿ utility outcomes include EQ-5d scores, VAS scores and Zarit scale. Random effects meta-regression models were used for modelling the impact of study and societal characteristics on cost. Results: Across all RDs, mean direct healthcare (DH) costs ($16,513) account for the majority of direct costs (mainly driven by drug costs), followed by mean direct healthcare informal (¿15,557) and mean direct healthcare formal (¿4,579) costs. Body system affected by the RD, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and public health expenditure in country of study were the most significant determinants in predicting cost. In regards to QoL outcomes, patients with musculoskeletal diseases seem to have the lowest quality of life across EQ-5D scores, VAS scores and Barthel index. The burden on caregivers seemed to be associated with Autoimmune, followed by Musculoskeletal and Respiratory conditions. Conclusions: This meta-analysis highlights the significant burden of RDs on the health care system and explicitly provides evidence for the magnitude of this impact. Such estimates are necessary to further the debate on priority setting around RDs and their comparison with other chronic diseases. Nevertheless, the large degree of cost variability across RDs might suggest that the use of umbrella terms to raise awareness around RDs¿ societal impact might not be warranted.

Objectives: Pandemics pressure national governments to respond swiftly. Mitigation efforts created an imbalance between population health, capacity of the healthcare system and economic prosperity. Each pandemic arising from a new virus is unknown territory for policy makers, and there is considerable uncertainty of the appropriateness of responses and outcomes. Methods: A qualitative approach was used to review mixed sources of data including Australian reports, official government publications, and COVID-19 data to discern robust future responses. Publicly available epidemiological and economic data were utilised to provide insight into the impact of the pandemic on Australia's healthcare system and economy. Results: Policies implemented by the Australian Government to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 impacted the healthcare sector and economy. This paper incorporates lessons learned to inform optimal economic preparedness. The rationale for an economic response plan concomitant with the health pandemic plan is explored to guide Australian Government policy makers in ensuring holistic and robust solutions for future pandemics. Conclusions: In future, an Australian Economic Pandemic Response Plan will aid in health and economic system preparedness, whilst a strong Australian economy and strategic planning will ensure resilience to future pandemics.

Objective(s): This paper aims at providing an overview of the COVID-19 situation, health policies, and economic impact in Greece, Iceland, New Zealand, and Singapore. The four countries were chosen due to their ability to contain the spread and mitigate the effects of COVID-19 on their societies. Method(s): We use document analysis based on the available national reports, media announcements, official coronavirus websites and governmental decrees in each of the four countries starting from the 1st of January o the 9th of August announcements. We apply a policy gradient to compare and examine the policies implemented in the four countries. Finding(s): The four countries have different demographic, epidemiological, socioeconomic profiles but managed to control the pandemic at an early stage in terms of total number of positive cases. The four countries managed to absorb the health system shock and decrease the case fatality ratio of COVID-19. Early interventions were crucial to avoid expected life lost in case of no early lockdown. The pandemic triggered several economic stimulus and relief measures in the four countries; the impact or the economic rebound is yet to be fully observed. Conclusion(s): We conclude that early, proactive and strict interventions along with leveraging previous experience on communicable diseases and the evolution of testing strategies are key lessons that can be synthesized from the interventions of the four countries and that could be useful for a potential second wave or similar pandemics.

Background: Italy was the first Western country to experience a major coronavirus outbreak and consequently faced large-scale health and socio-economic challenges. The Italian government enforced a wide set of homogeneous interventions nationally, despite the differing incidences of the virus throughout the country. Objective: The paper aims to analyse the policies implemented by the government and their impact on health and non-health outcomes considering both scaling-up and scaling-down interventions. Methods: To categorise the policy interventions, we rely on the comparative and conceptual framework developed by Moy et al. (2020). We investigate the impact of policies on the daily reported number of deaths, case fatality rate, confirmation rate, intensive care unit saturation, and financial and job market indicators across the three major geographical areas of Italy (North, Centre, and South). Qualitative and quantitative data are gathered from mixed sources: Italian national and regional institutions, National Health Research and international organisations. Our analysis contributes to the literature on the COVID-19 pandemic by comparing policy interventions and their outcomes. Results: Our findings suggest that the strictness and timing of containment and prevention measures played a prominent role in tackling the pandemic, both from a health and economic perspective. Technological interventions played a marginal role due to the inadequacy of protocols and the delay of their implementation. Conclusions: Future government interventions should be informed by evidence-based decision making to balance, the benefits arising from the timing and stringency of the interventions against the adverse social and economic cost, both in the short and long term.

Background: The trade-off between efficiency and equity has been largely studied in the health economics literature and for countries with different types of health systems. Even if efficiency and equity are desired, it is not always feasible to attain both simultaneously. In Spain, the National Health System has historically been recognized for its universal access and free of charge provision, with good health outcomes. However, the recent increase in health expenditures together with the economic cycle has turned the orientation of health policy implementation towards efficiency, threatening universality and equity in the access to healthcare. Methods: A Discrete Choice Experiment was carried out to weigh priorities of policy-makers from different regions in Spain. A total of 69 valid questionnaires were collected and the preferences towards equity and/or efficiency criteria were evaluated. Composite League Tables (CLTs) were used to rank hypothetical health interventions based on their attributes. Results: The Spanish health policy-makers, managers and other stakeholder displayed a stronger preference for severity of disease, high individual benefits, a large number of beneficiaries and proven cost-effectiveness criteria in decision making. The priority interventions targeted severe mental disorders, i.e. major depressive disorders and suicides (or suicidal attempts), especially for young and middle age categories across the three regions under study. Conclusion: In times of economic crisis, health policy-makers, managers and other stakeholder value, in moderation, efficiency over equity. The impact of austerity measures on populations¿ socio-economic wellbeing seems correlated with the preference for mental health interventions.

Financing in Australia's public hospital works through the Australian Refined Diagnosis Related Groups (AR-DRGs) with separations to specific DRG groups based on medical diagnosis or surgical procedure, patient's age, mode of separation, clinical complexity and complications. This paper aims at assessing how the AR-DRGs reflect the efficiency and equity of the hospitals resource allocation. Using administrative data of all acute public hospital admissions and length of stay (LOS) as a proxy for hospital costs, this paper showed that patients¿ socio-economic (SES) characteristics are a strong determinant of health care utilization. Our results revealed that the lower the SES, the longer the LOS and hence more utilization of the inpatient resources. Therefore, omitting SES from the risk adjusters list and solely focusing on DRG- based compensation penalizes hospitals catering to lower SES populations. Our findings further support the idea of smaller/remote hospitals based on block funding.

The aims of this paper are to evaluate the risk equalisation (RE) arrangement in Australia¿s private health insurance against practices in other countries with similar arrangements and to propose ways of improving the system to advance economic efficiency and solidarity. Possible regulatory responses to insurance market failures are reviewed based on standard economic arguments. We describe various regulatory strategies used elsewhere to identify essential system features against which the Australian system is compared. Our results reveal that RE is preferred over alternative regulatory strategies such as premium rate restrictions, premium compensation and claims equalisation. Compared with some countries¿ practices, the calculated risk factors in Australia should be enhanced with further demographic, social and economic factors and indicators of long-term health issues. Other coveted features include prospective calculation and annual clearing of equalisation payments. Australia currently operates with a crude mechanism for RE in which the scheme incentivises insurers to select on risk rather than focusing on efficiency and equity-promoting actions. System changes should be introduced in a stepwise manner; thus, we propose an incremental reform.

Health technology assessment (HTA) is widely viewed as an essential component in good universal health coverage (UHC) decision-making in any country. Various HTA tools and metrics have been developed and refined over the years, including systematic literature reviews (Cochrane), economic modelling, and cost-effectiveness ratios and acceptability curves. However, while the cost-effectiveness ratio is faithfully reported in most full economic evaluations, it is viewed by many as an insufficient basis for reimbursement decisions. Emotional debates about the reimbursement of cancer drugs, orphan drugs, and end-of-life treatments have revealed fundamental disagreements about what should and should not be considered in reimbursement decisions. Part of this disagreement seems related to the equity-efficiency tradeoff, which reflects fundamental differences in priorities. All in all, it is clear that countries aiming to improve UHC policies will have to go beyond the capacity building needed to utilize the available HTA toolbox. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) offers a more comprehensive tool for reimbursement decisions where different weights of different factors/attributes can give policymakers important insights to consider. Sooner or later, every country will have to develop their own way to carefully combine the results of those tools with their own priorities. In the end, all policymaking is based on a mix of facts and values.

Background: There is a traditional tension in public policy between the maximization of welfare from given resources (efficiency) and considerations related to the distribution of welfare among the population and to social justice (equity). The aim of this paper is to measure the relative weights of the efficiency- and equity-enhancing criteria in the preferences of health policy-makers in Israel, and to compare the Israeli results with those of other countries. Methods: We used the criteria of efficiency and equity which were adopted in a previous international study, adapted to Israel. The equity criteria, as defined in the international study, are: severity of the disease, age (young vs. elderly), and the extent to which the poor are subsidized. Efficiency is represented by the criteria: the potential number of beneficiaries, the extent of the health benefits to the patient, and the results of economic assessments (cost per QALY gained). We contacted 147 policy-makers, 65 of whom completed the survey (a response rate of 44%). Using Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) methodology by 1000Minds software, we estimated the relative weights of these seven criteria, and predicted the desirability of technologies characterized by profiles of the criteria. Results: The overall weight attached to the four efficiency criteria was 46% and that of the three equity criteria was 54%. The most important criteria were "financing of the technology is required so that the poor will be able to receive it" and the level of individual benefit. "The technology is intended to be used by the elderly" criterion appeared as the least important, taking the seventh place. Policy-makers who had experience as members of the Basket Committee appear to prefer efficiency criteria more than those who had never participated in the Basket Committee deliberations. While the efficiency consideration gained preference in most countries studied, Israel is unique in its balance between the weights attached to equity and efficiency considerations by health policy-makers. Discussion: The study explored the trade-off between efficiency and equity considerations in the preferences of health policy-makers in Israel. The way these declarative preferences have been expressed in actual policy decisions remains to be explored.

Time can be thought of as a resource that people need for good health. Healthy behaviour, accessing health services, working, resting and caring all require time. Like other resources, time is socially shaped, but its relevance to health and health inequality is yet to be established. Drawing from sociology and political economy, we set out the theoretical basis for two measures of time relevant to contemporary, market-based societies. We measure amount of time spent on care and work (paid and unpaid) and the intensity of time, which refers to rushing, effort and speed. Using data from wave 9 (N = 9177) of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia Survey we found that time poverty (> 80 h per week on care and work) and often or always rushing are barriers to physical activity and rushing is associated with poorer self-rated and mental health. Exploring their social patterning, we find that time-poor people have higher incomes and more time control. In contrast, rushing is linked to being a woman, lone parenthood, disability, lack of control and work-family conflicts. We supply a methodology to support quantitative investigations of time, and our findings underline time's dimensionality, social distribution and potential to influence health.

Although Recovery-oriented approaches to delivering mental health services are now promoted in health services across the globe, there is an ongoing need to adapt these approaches to meet the unique needs of consumers with a diagnosis of borderline personality disorder. The lived experience of borderline personality disorder includes emotional dysregulation, intense and unstable relationships, self-harming behaviours, fear of abandonment, and a limited capacity to cope with stress. These experiences present a range of challenges for those who deliver Recovery-oriented services and advocate the principles of empowerment and self-determination. This paper describes a novel crisis intervention program, ¿Open Borders,¿ which has been established to meet the unique needs of people with a borderline personality disorder diagnosis. Open Borders is a Recovery-oriented model that is run at a public, state-wide residential facility for mental health consumers in Western Australia, and offers alternative pathways to achieving mental health Recovery, including self-referral and short-term admission to a residential facility. The aims of the program are to break the cycle of hospital admission, reduce rates of self-harm, and support the complex Recovery journey of consumers with a diagnosis of borderline personality disorder. Open Borders provides an exemplar for other health service organisations seeking to establish Recovery-oriented crisis intervention alternatives.

Efforts are currently under way in Cambodia to expand the population coverage of social health protection schemes (health equity funds and voluntary insurance). Aligning the benefit packages for members of such schemes poses particular challenges in relation to the insurance component, as the financing of direct benefits in the insurance relies largely on the collection of voluntary premiums. This paper develops the concept of a targeted "risk-adjusted subsidy" approach to address this issue. Data on the health-seeking behaviour of insured households from Kampong Thom district over the course of one year (2010) are used to illustrate the concept. To retain the currently applied community rating and set incentives for cost effectiveness in administrative costs, as well as to avoid cream skimming (focusing on "good risks"), a risk-adjustment mechanism is proposed that would provide ex ante subsidies to insurance schemes according to the expected additional cost of a person joining the scheme. Although the concept is developed using the example of Cambodia, it is equally applicable to all developing countries facing fragmented risk pools while aiming for universal health coverage.

Background: In addition to cost-effectiveness, national guidelines often include other factors in reimbursement decisions. However, weights attached to these are rarely quantified, thus decisions can depend strongly on decision-maker preferences. Objective: To explore the preferences of policymakers and healthcare professionals involved in the decision-making process for different efficiency and equity attributes of interventions and to analyse cross-country differences. Method: Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) were carried out in Austria, Hungary, and Norway with policymakers and other professionals working in the health industry (N¿=¿153 respondents). Interventions were described in terms of different efficiency and equity attributes (severity of disease, target age of the population and willingness to subsidise others, potential number of beneficiaries, individual health benefit, and cost-effectiveness). Parameter estimates from the DCE were used to calculate the probability of choosing a healthcare intervention with different characteristics, and to rank different equity and efficiency attributes according to their importance. Results: In all three countries, cost-effectiveness, individual health benefit and severity of the disease were significant and equally important determinants of decisions. All countries show preferences for interventions targeting young and middle aged populations compared to those targeting populations over 60. However, decision-makers in Austria and Hungary show preferences more oriented to efficiency than equity, while those in Norway show equal preferences for equity and efficiency attributes. Conclusion: We find that factors other than cost-effectiveness seem to play an equally important role in decision-making. We also find evidence of cross-country differences in the weight of efficiency and equity attributes.

Background Macroeconomic growth in China enables significant progress in health care and public health. It faces difficult choices regarding access, quality and affordability, while dealing with the increasing burden of chronic diseases. Policymakers are pressured to make complex decisions while implementing health strategies. This study shows how this process could be structured and reports the specific equity and efficiency preferences among Chinese policymakers. Methods In total, 78 regional, provincial and national level policymakers with considerable experience participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative importance of six policy attributes describing equity and efficiency. Results from a conditional logistic model are presented for the six criteria, measuring the associated weights. Observed and unobserved heterogeneities were incorporated and tested in the model. Findings are used to give an example of ranking health interventions in relation to the present disease burden in China. Results In general, respondents showed strong preference for efficiency criteria i.e. total beneficiaries and cost-effectiveness as the most important attributes in decision making over equity criteria. Hence, priority interventions would be those conditions that are most prevalent in the country and cost least per health gain. Conclusion Although efficiency criteria override equity ones, major health threats in China would be targeted. Multicriteria decision analysis makes explicit important trade-offs between efficiency and equity, leading to explicit, transparent and rational policy making.

Moral hazard in public insurance for long-term care may be counteracted by strategies influencing supply or demand. Demand-side strategies may target the patient or the insurer. Various demand-side strategies and how they are implemented in four European countries (Germany, Belgium, Switzerland and the Netherlands) are described, highlighting the pros and cons of each strategy. Patient-oriented strategies to counteract moral hazard are used in all four countries but their impact on efficiency is unclear and crucially depends on their design. Strategies targeted at insurers are much less popular: Belgium and Switzerland have introduced elements of managed competition for some types of long-term care, as has the Netherlands in 2015. As only some elements of managed competition have been introduced, it is unclear whether it improves efficiency. Its effect will depend on the feasibility of setting appropriate financial incentives for insurers using risk equalization and the willingness of governments to provide insurers with instruments to manage long-term care.

Introduction: Access to ART and health services is guaranteed under universal coverage to improve life expectancy and quality of life for HIV patients. However, it remains unknown whether patients of different socioeconomic background equally use different types of health services. Methods: We use one-year (2010-2011) data on individual healthcare utilization and expenditures for the total population (N = 2262698) of the Basque Country. We observe the prevalence of HIV and use OLS regressions to estimate the impact on health utilization of demographic, socioeconomic characteristics, and health status in such patients. Results: HIV prevalence per 1000 individuals is greater the lower the socioeconomic status (0.784 for highest; 2.135 for lowest), for males (1.616) versus females (0.729), and for middle-age groups (26-45 and 46-65). Health expenditures are 11826¿ greater for HIV patients than for others, but with differences by socioeconomic group derived from a different mix of services utilization (total cost of 13058¿ for poorest, 14960¿ for richest). Controlling for health status and demographic variables, poor HIV patients consume more on pharmaceuticals; rich in specialists and hospital care. Therefore, there is inequity in health services utilization by socioeconomic groups. Conclusions: Equity in health provision for HIV patients represents a challenge even if access to treatment is guaranteed. Lack of information in poorer individuals might lead to under-provision while richer individuals might demand over-provision. We recommend establishing accurate clinical guidelines with the appropriate mix of health provision by validated need for all socioeconomic groups; promoting educational programs so that patients demand the appropriate mix of services, and stimulating integrated care for HIV patients with multiple chronic conditions.

Background: Worldwide, there is a need for formalization of the priority setting processes in health. Recent research has used the term multicriteria decision analysis for methods that systematically include preferences for both equity and efficiency. The present study compares decision-makers' preferences at the country level for a set of equity and efficiency criteria according to a multicriteria decision analysis framework. Methods: Discrete choice experiments were conducted for Brazil, Cuba, Nepal, Norway, and Uganda. By using standardized methods, we elicited preferences for intervention attributes using a individual choice questionnaire. A multinomial logistic regression was applied to estimate the coefficients for all single-policy criteria, per country. Attributes were assigned to an equity group or to an efficiency group. After testing for scale variance, predicted probabilities for interventions with both types of attributes were compared across countries. Results: The Norway and Nepal groups showed considerable preferences for efficiency criteria over equity criteria with percent change in respective predicted sum probabilities of [10%, -84%] and [6%, -79%]. Brazil and Uganda also showed preference for the efficiency criteria though less convincingly ([-34%, -93%], [-18%, -63%], respectively). The Cuban group showed the strongest preferences with equity attributes dominating efficiency ([-52%, 213%]). Conclusions: Group preferences of policymakers show explicit but varying trade-offs of efficiency and equity in these diverse settings. This multicriteria decision analysis approach, using discrete choice experiments, indicates that systematic setting of health priorities is possible across a variety of countries. It may be a valuable tool to guide health reform initiatives. © 2012, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR).

Background: Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. Methods. In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. Results: The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Conclusions: Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions. © 2012 Defechereux et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Objective. To explore the potential effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the market for general practitioner (GP) services in Australia. Design. We estimate the impact of changes in unemployment rates on demand for GP services and the impact of lost asset values on GP retirement plans and work patterns. Combining these supply and demand effects, we estimate the potential effect of the GFC on the market for GP services under various scenarios. Results. If deferral of retirement increases GP availability by 2%, and historic trends to reduce GP working hours are halved, at the current level of ~5.2% unemployment average fees would decline by $0.23 per GP consultation and volumes of GP services would rise by 2.53% with almost no change in average GP gross earnings over what would otherwise have occurred. With 8.5% unemployment, as initially predicted by Treasury, GP fees would increase by $0.91 and GP income by nearly 3%. Conclusions. The GFC is likely to increase activity in the GP market and potentially to reduce fee levels relative to the pre-GFC trends. Net effects on average GP incomes are likely to be small at current unemployment levels. What is known about the topic? Although the broad directions of the impact of the global financial crisis on the demand for and supply of GP services have been the subject of public discussion, the overall impact on the GP market has not been formally assessed. What does this paper add? Drawing on existing supply and demand models, we estimate the likely effect of the global financial crisis on GP activity levels, GP earnings, and the fees to be faced by patients. What are the implications for practitioners? Practitioners on average are likely to work harder to recover losses in the investments they have made for their retirements. They may face lower fees than would have been the case due to the increasing supply of GPs as some defer retirement, but average incomes are likely to be minimally affected. © 2011 AHHA.

Considerable policy action has focused on the social patterning of health, especially the health risks associated with low income. More recent attention has turned to transport, food systems, workplaces, and location, and the way their intersections with social position and income create health inequalities. Time is another dimension that structures what people do; yet the way in which time contours health has been neglected. This paper explores (a) how time might influence health, and (b) the way in which time scarcity complicates current understandings of health inequalities. Alongside other meanings, time can be thought of as a health resource. People need time to access health services, build close relationships, exercise, work, play, care, and consume-all activities that are fundamental to health. There is evidence that the experience of time pressure is directly related to poorer mental health. Lack of time is also the main reason people give for not taking exercise or eating healthy food. Thus, another impact of time scarcity may be its prevention of activities and behaviours critical for good health. We investigate whether time scarcity, like financial pressure, is socially patterned, and thus likely to generate health inequality. The experience of time scarcity appears to be linked to variations in time devoted to employment or caring-activities closely bound to gender, status, and life course. One reason that time scarcity is socially patterned is because of the way in which caring is valued, allocated, and negotiated in households and the market. Adding paid employment to caring workloads is now normative, transforming the allocation of time within families. But caring requires a close interlocking with others' needs, which are often urgent and unpredictable, creating conflict with the linear, scheduled, and commodified approach to time required in the workplace. We review the evidence for the possibility that these time pressures are indeed contributing to socially patterned health inequalities among people caring for others. We also explore the potential for time scarcity to compound other sources of health inequality through interplays with income and space (urban form, transportation networks and place of residence). People who are both time and income poor, such as lone mothers, may face compounding barriers to good health, and the urban geography of time-scarce families represents the embedding of time - money - space trade-offs linked to physical location. In Australia and the US, poorer families are more likely to live in mid to outer suburbs, necessitating longer commutes to work. These suburbs have inferior public transport access, and can lack goods and services essential to health such as shops selling fresh foods. We conclude with a tentative framework for considering time and health in the context of policy actions. For example, social policy efforts to increase workforce participation may be economically necessary, but could have time-related consequences that alter health. Similarly, if cities are to be made livable, health promoting, and more equitable, urban designers need to understand time and time - income - space trade-offs. Indeed, many social policies and planning and health interventions involve time dimensions which, if they remain unacknowledged, could further compound time pressures and time-related health inequality. © 2011 Pion Ltd and its Licensors.

This article focuses on the provision and financing of aged care in Australia. Demand for aged care will increase substantially as a result of population aging, with the number of Australians aged 85 and over projected to increase from 400,000 in 2010 to over 1.8 million in 2051. Meeting this demand will greatly strain the current system, and makes it important to exploit opportunities for increased efficiency. A move to greater beneficiary co-payments is also likely, though its extent may depend on whether aged care insurance and other forms of pre-payment can develop.

This paper capitalizes on a first set of experiences on the application of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in seven low- and middle-income settings. It thereby reacts to a recent paper by Peacock et al., highlighting the potential of MCDA to guide policy makers in highly specific decision-making contexts. We argue that MCDA also has a broader application in setting priorities in health, i.e. to indicate general perceptions on priorities without defining the allocation of resources in a precise fashion. This use of MCDA can have far-reaching and constructive influences on policy formulation. © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

In April 2007, Australia introduced a risk equalisation (RE) scheme (de facto a claims equalisation scheme), which replaced an extant reinsurance scheme that had operated since 1976. This scheme is one of a number of policy measures that the Australian Government has instituted to support the voluntary private health insurance (PHI) market which is subject to mandatory community rating and the attendant problem of selection. The latter has been a persistent concern in the Australian PHI market since the introduction of Australia's universal, compulsory national health insurance scheme Medicare. This paper presents a brief overview of Australia's health care financing arrangements and, in particular, focuses on the history, structure and functioning of the RE scheme. It provides an exposition of the operation of the scheme and empirical evidence of the scheme's effects in its first full year of operation, 2007-08. The paper makes three contributions: first, it provides the only detailed overview of the functioning of the Australian RE scheme published to date; second, it presents the first empirical measures of the scheme's operation at the level of the 38 individual PHI funds; and third, it describes the systematic differences in the scheme's operation with respect to large and small funds. Thus, this paper provides a number of insights into the operation and outcomes of the Australian RE scheme following its first year of operation. © 2010.

The paper summarises the conclusions for health policy from the experience of three countries who have introduced risk equalisation subsidies, in their voluntary health insurance (VHI) markets. The countries chosen are Australia, Ireland and South Africa. All of these countries have developed VHI markets and have progressed towards introducing risk equalisation. The objective of such subsidies is primarily to make VHI affordable while encouraging efficiency in health care production.The paper presents a conceptual framework to understand and compare risk equalisation subsidies in VHI markets. The paper outlines how such subsidies are organised in each of the countries and identifies problems that arise in their implementation.We conclude that the objectives of risk equalisation, in VHI markets are no different to those in countries with mandatory insurance systems. We find that the introduction of risk equalisation subsidies is complex and that countries seeking to introduce risk equalisation in VHI markets must carefully consider how such subsidies advance their overall health policy goals. Furthermore, we conclude that such subsidies must be structured correctly as otherwise incentives exist for risk selection which may threaten affordability and efficiency.Our overall conclusion is that also in voluntary health insurance markets risk equalisation has a role in meeting the related public policy objectives of risk solidarity and affordability, and without it these objectives are severely undermined. © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Risk equalisation has been implemented in a number of countries as a means of providing explicit risk-adjusted transfers between health insurance undertakings to improve efficiency within the health insurance market, and make health insurance affordable. Two such countries are Australia and Ireland. In this article, a simulation exercise is carried out to compare the effectiveness of the two countries risk equalisation schemes in meeting the policy objectives of encouraging insurers to be efficient and discouraging them from engaging in risk selection. The results of the analysis show that the Australian scheme is less effective than the Irish scheme in reducing the incentive for risk selection and in encouraging insurers to be efficient. The results provide evidence that direct standardisation mechanisms (as used in Ireland) can lead to superior outcomes as compared to indirect standardisation mechanisms (as used in Australia) in terms of promoting efficiency and deterring risk selection. © 2010 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.

¿ The current escalation in costs of Australia's health care system does not appear to be sustainable. ¿ Sustainable financing requires direct engagement of consumers - instead of the current political process driven by special interest groups, targeted at gaining a larger share of the federal and state governments' budgets. ¿ Reforms in the Netherlands, directed at achieving universal insurance with consumer choice of health fund, provide valuable lessons for Australia on how to design sustainable financing.

In this paper, we simulate several scenarios of the potential premium range for voluntary (supplementary) health insurance, covering benefits which might be excluded from mandatory health insurance (MI). Our findings show that, by adding risk-factors, the minimum premium decreases and the maximum increases. The magnitude of the premium range is especially substantial for benefits such as medical devices and drugs. When removing benefits from MI policymakers should be aware of the implications for the potential reduction of affordability of voluntary health insurance coverage in a competitive market. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009.

As the share of supplementary health insurance (SI) in health care finance is likely to grow, SI may become an increasingly attractive tool for risk-selection in basic health insurance (BI). In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework to assess the probability that insurers will use SI for favourable risk-selection in BI. We apply our framework to five countries in which risk-selection via SI is feasible: Belgium, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. For each country, we review the available evidence of SI being used as selection device. We find that the probability that SI is and will be used for risk-selection substantially varies across countries. Finally, we discuss several strategies for policy makers to reduce the chance that SI will be used for risk-selection in BI markets. © 2006 Cambridge University Press.

In this article we perform an economic analysis of different regulatory frameworks that aim at guaranteeing solidarity in competitive health insurance markets. Thereafter, we analyse the legal conformity of these intervention strategies with EC law. We find that risk compensation schemes are the first-best intervention strategy because they guarantee an 'acceptable level of solidarity' without hindering free trade and competition and without reducing efficiency. Second-best options are premium and excess-loss compensation schemes, which guarantee solidarity at the expense of some efficiency. Premium rate restrictions and open enrolment should be avoided because they reduce efficiency and are unnecessary, not proportional, and undesirable to the pursuit of the general good. These conclusions are relevant for EU countries that adopt premium rate restrictions and open enrolment in combination with a risk compensation scheme, such as Ireland and the Netherlands. In these countries policy makers should design the health insurance schemes in conformity with EC law, for example by replacing premium rate restrictions and open enrolment with premium and/or excess-loss compensation schemes.

Income-related horizontal inequity in hospital admissions is estimated in twelve European countries. Pooled data of the EHCS for five years (1994-1998) are used to estimate and compare inequity indices. In most EU member states, after standardizing for need differences, the better off are more likely to be admitted to hospitals than the poor, and significantly so in Portugal, Greece, Austria, Italy, Ireland, Germany and France. Regional disparities in hospital supply also plays a role in the measured degree of inequity, in particular, in Italy and Spain. For the former we studied more deeply this phenomenon by using the Multiscopo ISTAT survey. The analysis confirms that people living in the North of Italy have a higher probability of being hospitalized than their counterparts and enjoy better quality of care. To make it worse, in the South people tend more intensively to move to other regions to receive hospital care.